What is a business cycle?
It’s the ups and downs of the entire economy's Real GDP as it follows its overall trend.
The overall trend is upwards
Note: Oddly enough the term business cycle does not apply to a business. Rather, it refers to the entire economy (keeping us all on our toes I guess).
As the US economy works its way upward it has its ups and down. The ups exceed the downs, and over time the economy (and the stock market) climb upwards.
This occurrence is typical of a good, and normal, economy. It represents that the US economy is healthy overall, so it grows and performs well (upward trend).
But the US economy also encounters challenges along the way (the downs markets and slowing or shrinking GDP periods).
Importantly, individuals, companies, organizations, and government responds to the declines in order to “fix” the economy by solving a present challenge.
The US has been very good at fixing its economy as it meets challenges, plus we have a huge collection of smart and hardworking businesses full of good people and resources to fix their business (their slice of the economic pie).
Economists measure business cycles
These macroeconomists measure many variables to paint a picture and understand the past, present, and future economy. An example of a variable that is measured is Unemployment. Another example of a variable that is measured is Real GDP. There are tons of variables measured. But these variables are measured at regular intervals (perhaps once per week, once per month, once per quarter, once per year, etc.) When you measure a variable at consistent intervals it’s called a time series.
When you look at the time series (collection of data for one variable taken at regular intervals), you can see trends. Real GDP, Prices, and Unemployment are three massively important trends for economists. When the Real GDP trend shows increases for two or more quarters (a quarter is a 3-month interval, or a quarter of a year) then the economy is in expansion. If that expansion lasts for a long, long time (years) it is considered a boom.
But when the Real GDP trend shows decreases for two (or more) quarters then the economy is in contraction. Historically, if the Real GDP is contracting then it was called a recession, but nowadays many economists look at more than just Real GDP before labeling the economy as being in a recession.
(They will look at income, unemployment/employment, etc for an overall feel before using the word recession.)
So expansion and contraction are not debatable: either your Real GDP continues to grow every quarter and you’re expanding (your economy), or your Real GDP continues to shrink every quarter and you’re contracting (your economy). Obviously, government is interested in having tools to end contraction, avoid recession, and restore expansion/growth — more on that later.
The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) can officially declare a recession, but as an improving investor gathering your data do you want to just move with the herd and wait for the NBER to declare a recession or end of a recession? Or do you want to be one step in front of it? And even if you do wait, just understanding that an expansion or a contraction is coming can keep you emotionally calm and rational (buying low and selling high takes emotional control and sound reasoning).
I saw that coming from a mile away” is a powerful feeling as an investor. It takes time to develop that — and you will still get surprised from time to time too. But since you’re winning more than you’re losing as you improve, you deal with it better.
Note: The NBER is typically full of Nobel Laureates and past members of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. But, you know, good investors still ensure what they are reading and hearing makes sense to them.
Many economic factors correlate
For instance, Real GDP and Unemployment rates historically correlate (move together) very, very well. In other words, when Real GDP is going up then Unemployment is going down. When things move together but go in opposite directions that is called “an inverse relationship” or a “negative correlation.” They go in opposite directions, but at the same time; this can also be called countercyclical. And a direct relationship is when two things move in the same direction at the same time; this can also be called positive correlation, procyclical, or just cyclical.
An investor could look at it the opposite way too: when Unemployment is going down then Real GDP is going up.
The NBER looks at this closely when deciding if we are in a recession. If Real GDP is declining, but Unemployment is not changing then they may not call it a recession.
There are indeed times when things that are highly correlated (like Real GDP and Unemployment) do not move “correctly.” This is always odd for economists and investors, and you need to pursue the reason (or at least a theory) why.
Remember, the economy is very dynamic and complex, so there are many things that are usually true but not always true. Economists are just gathering information and painting pictures in order to understand the economy. Not every painting from economists is photo-realistic.
There are in-between periods too, such as 2024, when the painting looks more like a Monet. You can tell what it is, but there are not a lot of clean edges. What you don’t want is a Jackson Pollock painting (economically speaking), such as the lead-up to GFC (Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008) that wasn’t understood and turned into a crash.
As an investor, you want procyclical investments when the economy is good (restaurants, airlines, auto-makers) and countercyclical investments (discount retail and alcohol) when the economy is bad.
So before the NBER declares a recession they look for: a decline in total GDP, a decline in income, a decline in employment, and a decline in trade. So they want to see that the economy is bad, or down in many regards — and we would tend to agree with this. The term recession should be reserved for when many bad things are happening within the economy. Otherwise, people might think every bit of bad news is a recession, which reduces their participation in the economy (less iPhones, restaurants, and Disney+) which then would lead to more problems — because they got spooked.
Note: What works really well is to have a teammate that can understand, stay the course, and make some basic pivots along the way. If you can’t do it yourself, we recommend Arena Investor investment management services.
You can be in a growth recession too
What does that mean? It means you were growing at 3% but are now growing at 2.5%. See how you are growing slower now? The growth (growth rate) contracted. But you are still growing. It is like the kid in middle school who hits a growth spurt and grows 12″ in a year versus the kid who grows 6″ in a year. Don’t worry, they are both healthy.
Look at the data for yourself, hear what is actually happening, and don’t just listen to panicky news. Growth rate contractions happen. Should we look at why? Yes. Should you panic? No. In fact, you should never panic.
The moral of the story
Continue to learn so you can decide for yourself what is good and bad. (Hint: there are opportunities in every market.)
What is an economic depression?
So we know what contraction is, and we know a recession is more than a Real GDP contraction, but what is a depression? Simply put, an economic depression is when you are in a recession for a long time (years and years).
Since The Great Depression economists have been steadfastly dedicated to preventing another depression! Heck, we already covered Keynes and his effort to develop macroeconomics because the world was suffering through The Great Depression. (There are other great contributions from others too in economics.)
Economies have momentum and inertia
The momentum is how much change is happening (a lot of upward or downward change in the Real GDP for instance) and inertia is the economy’s resistance to change. This does not mean that when government takes action it is useless; instead, it means that a train slows down slowly. You won’t get a barge to turn on a dime. You can put rudder inputs in, and a turn will start, but it might not respond like a fifth generation military fighter jet.
You may think you want quick changes, but you don’t. What you want is small inputs that are on-time from the government so you don’t get a runaway train in the first place — so you don’t need to do a 180 degree turn with an aircraft carrier — but instead a little left or a little right to stay on target.
As instructor pilots say, “small corrections sooner.” The US government has been pretty good at this compared to the rest of the world, especially when you consider how big, complex, and dynamic our economy is. But let’s stay vigilant.
Note: Economic inertia that is quite resistant to change is called persistence.
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Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.
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Understanding Financial Planning
In your 20s, 30s, and 40s, the concept of financial planning might seem overwhelming, but it’s one of the most important steps you can take to secure your future. Whether you’re just starting out in your career, building a family, or planning for significant life milestones, having a solid financial plan is essential. Arena Investor is here to help you navigate the complexities of financial planning, guiding you toward a future of financial stability, wealth creation, and the ability to leave a lasting legacy.
What Is Financial Planning?
Financial planning is a comprehensive process that involves setting financial goals, developing strategies to achieve them, and continuously monitoring your progress. It’s more than just budgeting or saving; it’s about understanding how every aspect of your financial life—income, expenses, investments, and more—works together to create a secure future.
For those in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, this process is especially critical. The financial decisions you make now will have long-lasting effects on your wealth and quality of life in the future. Arena Investor provides personalized financial planning services designed to meet the unique needs of young professionals, helping you navigate each step of your financial journey.
The Arena Investor Roadmap to Financial Success
Arena Investor’s approach to financial planning is structured around three key phases that are particularly relevant to people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s: paying off debt, saving for life events, and focusing on wealth creation and legacy building. Here’s how we can guide you through each step.
1. Paying Off Debt
Debt can be a significant obstacle to financial freedom, especially for young adults who may be carrying student loans, credit card balances, or car payments. Arena Investor understands that paying off debt is the first critical step toward achieving financial stability and setting the stage for future wealth creation.
Our financial planning process begins with a thorough assessment of your current debt situation. We work with you to develop a debt repayment strategy that fits your budget and lifestyle. This might include prioritizing high-interest debt, consolidating loans, or setting up automatic payments to ensure you stay on track. By helping you manage, reduce, and ultimately pay off your debt, Arena Investor positions you for success as you move forward in your financial journey – a journey you can actually enjoy.
2. Saving for Life Events
As you progress through your 20s, 30s, and 40s, you’ll likely encounter several significant life events—buying a home, getting married, or starting a family. Each of these milestones requires careful financial planning and saving. Arena Investor helps you prepare for these events, ensuring that you have the financial resources needed to achieve your goals without derailing your long-term financial plan.
We start by identifying your short- and medium-term financial goals and determining how much you need to save to meet them. For example, if you’re planning to buy a home in the next few years, we’ll work with you to create a savings plan that covers your down payment, closing costs, and other expenses. Similarly, if you’re planning for marriage or expecting a child, Arena Investor will help you budget for those life changes while ensuring that you continue to build wealth for the future.
3. Investing for Wealth Creation and Legacy Building
Once your debt is under control and you’ve started saving for life events, it’s time to emphasize wealth creation and legacy building. This is where the guidance of Arena Investor truly shines. We help you develop and implement investment strategies that align with your long-term goals, whether that’s growing your wealth for retirement, funding your children’s education, or leaving a lasting legacy for your loved ones or favorite causes.
Arena Investor offers personalized investment management services designed to help you build and preserve wealth over time. We take into account your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals to create a diversified portfolio that balances growth with stability. For example, if you’re in your 30s, we might recommend a mix of stocks, ETFs, and perhaps crypto if it’s suitable that provides both growth potential and protection against market volatility. As you approach retirement, we’ll adjust your portfolio to reduce risk and focus on generating income.
In addition to investment management, Arena Investor helps you plan for your legacy. Whether you want to leave an inheritance for your children or grandchildren, make charitable donations, or establish a trust, we will work with you to create a legacy plan that reflects your values and wishes. We also consider the tax implications of your investments and legacy plan, helping you maximize the benefits for yourself and your heirs.
Why Financial Planning with Arena Investor Is Worth It
Working with Arena Investor offers numerous advantages for young professionals. Our financial planners and investment managers provide the expertise and guidance you need to navigate the complexities of personal finance, from managing debt to creating a legacy. Here’s why partnering with Arena Investor is a smart move for your financial future:
- Personalized Guidance: Arena Investor tailors financial plans to your unique circumstances, ensuring that your financial goals are achievable and aligned with your lifestyle.
- Strategic Planning: We help you prioritize and manage your financial goals, from paying off debt to saving for life events and building wealth. Our strategic approach ensures that you’re on the right path to financial security.
- Investment Expertise: Arena Investor’s investment management services are designed to optimize your portfolio for growth, stability, and tax efficiency. We help you make informed decisions that contribute to long-term wealth creation.
- Legacy Building: We assist you in planning for the future, whether that means leaving a financial legacy for your family or supporting causes you care about. Arena Investor helps you create a lasting impact through thoughtful financial planning.
Built for The One in the Arena
Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.
You’re the Hero.
We’re the Guide.
Understanding Qualified Term
When it comes to financial planning, managing your "Qualified Term" is not only about preparing for a comfortable retirement but also about strategically reducing your current tax liabilities. This term essentially measures how long your retirement assets can sustain your lifestyle. Here's a detailed explanation of how optimizing your Qualified Term can lead to tax savings now while also securing your financial future.
What is Qualified Term?
The Qualified Term is a financial metric that evaluates the sustainability of your retirement savings based on your current lifestyle and planned retirement spending. It helps you understand how many years your retirement assets, such as 401(k)s or IRAs, can support you post-retirement, taking into consideration your annual withdrawal rate and the expected growth of your investments.
Immediate Benefits: Reducing Tax Bills
1. Pre-Tax Contributions: Contributing to qualified retirement plans like a traditional 401(k) or IRA allows you to make pre-tax contributions, which reduce your taxable income. By maximizing these contributions, you can lower your current tax bill significantly. Simply put: Every dollar you contribute to a qualified retirement account reduces your taxable income by that amount. If you make $75,000 and contribute $12,000 then your taxable income is reduced to $63,000.
2. Tax-Deferred Growth: Investments in these accounts grow tax-deferred, meaning you don't pay taxes on the earnings until you withdraw them, potentially at a lower tax rate in retirement. This can result in substantial tax savings over the course of your career.
3. Tax Credits and Deductions: Depending on your income and how much you contribute, you may also qualify for additional tax credits or deductions. These benefits enhance the immediate financial advantages of strategic retirement planning.
Long-Term Advantages: Secure Retirement Planning
1. Ensuring Sufficient Retirement Funds: Understanding and managing your Qualified Term helps ensure that your retirement savings are sufficient to support your desired lifestyle for many years post-retirement.
2. Strategic Withdrawal Planning: An optimal Qualified Term involves planning the timing and amount of withdrawals from your retirement accounts to ensure financial stability in retirement while minimizing tax liabilities.
How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Optimize Your Qualified Term
1. Tailored Financial Strategies: An Arena Investor Advisor can develop personalized strategies that optimize both your immediate tax benefits and long-term financial goals. They can help determine the right contribution levels to your qualified accounts to maximize tax efficiency now and sustainability later.
2. Adapting to Financial Changes: Life events and financial markets ebb and flow. Your financial advisor will monitor changes and adjust your plan as necessary, ensuring that your Qualified Term remains aligned with your evolving financial situation.
3. Educational Support: For newcomers to financial planning, understanding the nuances of qualified accounts, tax implications, and retirement planning can be overwhelming. Your Arena Investor Advisor will provide clear, jargon-free explanations and ongoing education to empower your financial decision-making.
4. Advanced Planning Tools: Utilizing sophisticated planning tools from industry-leading apps and platforms , Arena Investor Advisors can illustrate various scenarios and strategies, showing you how different approaches affect your Qualified Term and tax liabilities.
All In All
Your Qualified Term is a critical element in your financial strategy, impacting both your current tax situation and your future financial security. By effectively managing this term, you're taking a proactive approach to reduce your immediate tax burden while ensuring a stable, financially secure retirement.
With the expert guidance of an Arena Investor Advisor, tailored to your unique financial needs and goals, you can navigate the complexities of tax planning and retirement with confidence, ensuring that you make the most of your financial resources today and tomorrow.
Built for The One in the Arena
Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.
You’re the Hero.
We’re the Guide.
Morning Market Preview for September 25th, 2024
Arena Investor is modern planning and investing built for the busy, hardworking professionals who know their money needs more attention but don't have the time, or simply want better work-life balance
Good morning, Heroes!
Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 25th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!
Key Economic Reports
- At 10:00 am New Homes Sales report, previously 739,000, expected to be 700,000.
Key Earnings Reports & Events Today
- Micron, Jefferies Financial Group, Concentrix Corp, HB Fuller, Worthington Steel, and Inventiva all report today, with particular attention on Micron.
- Boeing’s strike continues, and the 30% pay raise offer isn’t enough per the union. The strike began on September 13th.
The Fed
- The Fed Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at 4:00 pm from Harvard’s Kennedy School.
Stocks
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Up Most: Tech is now up 27.34% this year. Utilities is second-best on the year, up 26.83%.
- Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 7.08% this year. Second-to-last is Materials, up 10.54%.
5 Day Moving Average:
- Up Most: 83% of Industrials Large Cap stocks are now above their 5 day average. Communications is second now with 82% of its Large Caps above their 5 day average.
- Down Most: Health Care is down, and only 32% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. Financials are down second-most, and only 37% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average.
Crypto
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin was up the last 24 hours, now over $64,000, which puts it at a staggering 52.6% gain on the year.
- Ethereum: Ethereum is down a bit the last day, now about $2,650 now, which means a 14.9% gain on the year.
- Top Gainers Recently: Cardano won the day, up 7.47%.
- Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.
Bonds
- 2-Year Treasury: Yields continue to come down, now at 3.578%.
- 10-Year Treasury: Up a tick again to 3.732%, but overall it’s been coming down this year too.
- The yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.
Gold
- Price: Gold prices remain elevated, now up to $2625, and it’s up 28.8% on the year.
Real Estate
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down just a bit again, now to 6.18%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 7.35% this year.
Geopolitical Aspects
- Asia: Global markets are closely watching China’s economic data, as the country’s slower-than-expected growth remains a key concern for global demand.
- Europe: In Europe, rising energy prices ahead of winter continue to pressure inflation and consumer spending.
- Global Tensions: Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to weigh on global supply chains and energy markets.
Built for The One in the Arena
Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.
You’re the Hero.
We’re the Guide.
P.S.
Continue reading, if you would enjoy some simple explanations of key concepts to level up your financial education
Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.
Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.
You’re the Hero.
We’re the Guide.
- Consumer Confidence: The Consumer Confidence report measures how optimistic consumers are about the economy's short-term future, influencing spending and investment decisions. It's based on surveys about income, business, and employment conditions.
- PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): This is like a health check for businesses. A number above 50 means more growth, below 50 indicates contraction. It's crucial because it shows if companies are buying more stuff, which suggests they're confident about future sales.
- Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
- Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
- Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
- The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
- Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
- Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
- Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
- Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
- Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
- Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
- Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
- Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
- 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”
Data Sources
Key Economic Reports: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Consumer Surveys: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/reports.php
Key Earnings Reports: https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar/
Key Events: https://x.com/i/grok and fact-checking
The Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
Stocks, Year-to-date Performance: https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sector
Stocks, 5 Day Moving Averages: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance#google_vignette
Crypto, Bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
Crypto, Ethereum: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ETH.CM=
Crypto, Top Gainers: https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
Bonds, 2 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y
Bonds, 10 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Gold: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30YFRM
Geopolitical Aspects: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
Simple Explanations: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
The article itself is written by Arena Investor humans, not AI
The article audio is generated by https://elevenlabs.io
The article images are generated by https://chatgpt.com using DALL-E
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