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Arena Investor is modern planning and investing built for the busy, hardworking professionals who know their money needs more attention but don't have the time, or simply want better work-life balance.

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 27th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• Many economic reports again today. Let’s dive in:
  
  
• At 8:30am Personal Income and Personal Spending reports drop, previously 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, with Personal Income expected to increase to 0.4% and Personal Spending to decrease to 0.3%.
  
  
• Also at 8:30am the PCE Index reports, previously 0.2%, expected to be down to 0.1%.
  
  
• At 8:30 the PCE Year-Over-Year reports as well, previously 2.6%, expected to be up to 2.7%.
  
  
• Continuing with the 8:30am reports, Wholesale Inventories reports, previously 0.2%, with no expectations set.
  
  
• Along those lines, Retail Inventories also reports, previous 0.8%, with no expectations set.
  
  
• At 10:00am, Consumer Sentiment reports, previously 69.0, expecting a small improvement to 69.3.

Key  Earnings Reports & Events Today

• No key Earnings Reports for Friday.
  
  
• Boeing’s strike continues, and the Union expects talks to resume today. The strike began on September 13th. 

The Fed

• “Conversations with Governor Bowman” begins at 1:15pm from Birmingham, Alabama. 

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Tech is up once again, now up 28.99% this year. Utilities passes Communications as second-best on the year, up 26.55%.
  
  
• Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, down 2% yesterday, up overall to 4.74% this year. Second-to-last is now Materials, up 11.36%.

5 Day Moving Average, Percent of Large Caps above their 5 day average:

• Up Most: Materials are up most at 93%. Communications is second now at 82%.
  
  

• Down Most: Real Estate has had a bad 5 days, down now to 13%. Energy is down second-most, now at 18%. 

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin up significantly in the last 24 hours, now about $65k, which puts it at a staggering 50.2% gain on the year.
  
  
• Ethereum: Ethereum up significantly in the last day too, now over $2,600, which means an 14.5% gain on the year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Shiba Inu zorched upwards an astounding 20.9% in the last day.
  
  
• Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury:  Yields are up, now at 3.627%.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury: Up a smidge again to 3.796%, but overall it’s been coming down this year too.
  
  
• The “spread” is opening, and the yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.

Gold

• Price: Gold prices remain elevated, now up to $2670, and it’s up 29% on the year.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Up just a bit, now to 6.21%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 6.9% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Market sentiment appears bullish, with equities gaining from Chinese stimulus and positive earnings, notably from MU.
  
  
• Investors are keenly watching for the PCE data, expecting a decline in headline PCE to 2.3% YoY, signaling potential dovish signals for monetary policy.
  
  
• Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments on banking liquidity and the Fed's stance provide a backdrop of stability amidst market volatility dynamics.

‍

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S.

Continue reading, if you would enjoy some simple explanations of key concepts to level up your financial education

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

• PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index): A key measure of U.S. inflation, reflecting changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
• "The Yield Spread" or just “The Spread”: The difference between yields on differing debt instruments, typically the 2-year and the 10-year Treasuries, often used to predict economic trends or assess risk.
• Initial Jobless Claims: The report measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, indicating labor market strength or weakness.
• Consumer Confidence: The Consumer Confidence report measures how optimistic consumers are about the economy's short-term future, influencing spending and investment decisions. It's based on surveys about income, business, and employment conditions.
• PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): This is like a health check for businesses. A number above 50 means more growth, below 50 indicates contraction. It's crucial because it shows if companies are buying more stuff, which suggests they're confident about future sales.
• Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
• Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
• Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
• Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
• Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
• Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
• Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
• Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
• Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
• Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
• Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
• 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”

Data Sources

Key Economic Reports: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendarConsumer Surveys: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/reports.phpKey Earnings Reports: https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar/Key Events: https://x.com/i/grok and fact-checkingThe Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htmStocks, Year-to-date Performance: https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sectorStocks, 5 Day Moving Averages: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance#google_vignetteCrypto, Bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=Crypto, Ethereum: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ETH.CM=Crypto, Top Gainers: https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/Bonds, 2 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2YBonds, 10 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10YGold: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30YFRMGeopolitical Aspects: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checkingSimple Explanations: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checkingThe article itself is written by Arena Investor humans, not AIThe article audio is generated by https://elevenlabs.ioThe article images are generated by https://chatgpt.com using DALL-E

‍

Arena Investor is modern planning and investing built for the busy, hardworking professionals who know their money needs more attention but don't have the time, or simply want better work-life balance

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 26th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• Tons of economic reports today. Let’s dig in:
  
  
• At 8:30am Initial Jobless Claims reports, previously 219,000, expected to be up to 223,000.
  
  
• Also at 8:30am Durable Goods Orders reports, previously 9.8%, expected to be down big to -3.0%.
  
  
• The GDP Second Revision for Q2 is at 8:30am as well, previously 3.0%, expecting 3.0%.
  
  
• At 10:00am Pending Home Sales reports, previously -5.5%, expecting an increase to 1.0%.

Key  Earnings Reports & Events Today

• Costco, Blackberry, Scholastic, and Vail Resorts all report today, with particular attention on Costco for consumer staple spending and Vail for consumer discretionary spending.
  
  
• Boeing’s strike continues, the union dislikes the 30% pay raise offer, and would like the company to stop negotiating in public. The strike began on September 13th. 

The Fed

• Many Fed representatives speak during the day: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, NY Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. 

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Tech is up again, now up 28.35% this year. Communications passes Utilities as second-best on the year, up 25.91%.
  
  
• Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, down yesterday, up overall to 6.77% this year. Second-to-last is now Real Estate, up 12.04%.

5 Day Moving Average, Percent of Large Caps above their 5 day average:

• Up Most: Materials and Utilities are at 68%. Consumer Discretionary is second now at 60%.
  
  

• Down Most: Energy is down big, now at 14%. Health Care is down second-most, now at 21%. 

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin down a touch in the last 24 hours, now over $63,200, which puts it at a staggering 50.2% gain on the year.
  
  
• Ethereum: Ethereum is down a bit the last day too at about $2,575, which means an 11.8% gain on the year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Ox is up 4.7% on the day; Shiba Inu up 4.3%.
  
  
• Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury:  Yields came down a tad, now at 3.561%.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury: Up a tick again to 3.791%, but overall it’s been coming down this year too.
  
  
• The “spread” is opening, and the yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.

Gold

• Price: Gold prices remain elevated, now up to $2661, and it’s up 28.8% on the year.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Up just a tick, now to 6.19%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 7.2% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Investors should brace for volatility due to OPEC+ hinting at cuts.
  
  
• US indexes poised for minor adjustments amid Fed's dovish signals on rates.
  
  
• Watch geopolitical noise with Middle East potentially flaring, affecting oil.
  
  
• Gold might seesaw against dollar softness.
  
  
• X chatter buzzes with potential Boeing strike action impacts.
  
  
• Stay alert for reactionary trades. And keep a long-term mindset.

‍

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S.

Continue reading, if you would enjoy some simple explanations of key concepts to level up your financial education

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

• Initial Jobless Claims: The report measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, indicating labor market strength or weakness.
• Consumer Confidence: The Consumer Confidence report measures how optimistic consumers are about the economy's short-term future, influencing spending and investment decisions. It's based on surveys about income, business, and employment conditions.
• PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): This is like a health check for businesses. A number above 50 means more growth, below 50 indicates contraction. It's crucial because it shows if companies are buying more stuff, which suggests they're confident about future sales.
• Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
• Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
• Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
• Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
• Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
• Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
• Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
• Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
• Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
• Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
• Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
• 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”

Data Sources

Key Economic Reports: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Consumer Surveys: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/reports.php
Key Earnings Reports: https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar/
Key Events: https://x.com/i/grok and fact-checking
The Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
Stocks, Year-to-date Performance: https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sector
Stocks, 5 Day Moving Averages: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance#google_vignette
Crypto, Bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
Crypto, Ethereum: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ETH.CM=
Crypto, Top Gainers: https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
Bonds, 2 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y
Bonds, 10 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Gold: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30YFRM
Geopolitical Aspects: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
Simple Explanations: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
The article itself is written by Arena Investor humans, not AI
The article audio is generated by https://elevenlabs.io
The article images are generated by https://chatgpt.com using DALL-E

‍

Arena Investor is modern planning and investing built for the busy, hardworking professionals who know their money needs more attention but don't have the time, or simply want better work-life balance

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 25th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• At 10:00 am New Homes Sales report, previously 739,000, expected to be 700,000.

Key  Earnings Reports & Events Today

• Micron, Jefferies Financial Group, Concentrix Corp, HB Fuller, Worthington Steel, and Inventiva all report today, with particular attention on Micron.
  
  
• Boeing’s strike continues, and the 30% pay raise offer isn’t enough per the union. The strike began on September 13th. 

The Fed

• The Fed Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at 4:00 pm from Harvard’s Kennedy School.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Tech is now up 27.34% this year. Utilities is second-best on the year, up 26.83%.
  
  
• Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 7.08% this year. Second-to-last is Materials, up 10.54%.

5 Day Moving Average: 

• Up Most: 83% of Industrials Large Cap stocks are now above their 5 day average. Communications is second now with 82% of its Large Caps above their 5 day average.
  
  

• Down Most: Health Care is down, and only 32% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. Financials are down second-most, and only 37% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. 

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin was up the last 24 hours, now over $64,000, which puts it at a staggering 52.6% gain on the year.
  
  
• Ethereum: Ethereum is down a bit the last day, now about $2,650 now, which means a 14.9% gain on the year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Cardano won the day, up 7.47%.
  
  
• Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury:  Yields continue to come down, now at 3.578%.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury: Up a tick again to 3.732%, but overall it’s been coming down this year too.
  
  
• The yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.

Gold

• Price: Gold prices remain elevated, now up to $2625, and it’s up 28.8% on the year.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down just a bit again, now to 6.18%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 7.35% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Asia: Global markets are closely watching China’s economic data, as the country’s slower-than-expected growth remains a key concern for global demand.
  
  
• Europe: In Europe, rising energy prices ahead of winter continue to pressure inflation and consumer spending.
  
  
• Global Tensions: Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to weigh on global supply chains and energy markets. 

‍

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S.

Continue reading, if you would enjoy some simple explanations of key concepts to level up your financial education

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

• Consumer Confidence: The Consumer Confidence report measures how optimistic consumers are about the economy's short-term future, influencing spending and investment decisions. It's based on surveys about income, business, and employment conditions.
• PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): This is like a health check for businesses. A number above 50 means more growth, below 50 indicates contraction. It's crucial because it shows if companies are buying more stuff, which suggests they're confident about future sales.
• Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
• Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
• Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
• Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
• Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
• Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
• Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
• Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
• Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
• Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
• Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
• 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”

Data Sources

Key Economic Reports: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Consumer Surveys: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/reports.php
Key Earnings Reports: https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar/
Key Events: https://x.com/i/grok and fact-checking
The Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
Stocks, Year-to-date Performance: https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sector
Stocks, 5 Day Moving Averages: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance#google_vignette
Crypto, Bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
Crypto, Ethereum: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ETH.CM=
Crypto, Top Gainers: https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
Bonds, 2 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y
Bonds, 10 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Gold: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30YFRM
Geopolitical Aspects: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
Simple Explanations: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
The article itself is written by Arena Investor humans, not AI
The article audio is generated by https://elevenlabs.io
The article images are generated by https://chatgpt.com using DALL-E