Morning Market Preview for September 5, 2024

Note: Growth in a national economy is measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If GDP goes up 3%, then the economy grew 3%. When GDP is adjusted for the effects of inflation it is called Real GDP. So, Real GDP is the better measure of whether or not a country's economy is growing.

It wasn’t going well in Europe for a while

In Europe, there was little to no quality of life improvements economically for the general population for hundreds of years between the collapse of the Roman Empire and the formation of capitalist nations in the 1800s. 

Since capitalism and the Industrial Revolution, a 1-2% Real GDP growth rate has occurred in most countries. But, before the formation of capitalist nations institutions of many types were formed, which were essential in developing and sustaining market economies. For instance, printing and the press became an institution after Gutenberg's press was invented; this allowed the promotion of ideas further and more consistently than by voice alone.

The spreading of good ideas and best practices was critical to the world economy.

Real GDP growth enables increased standards of living for masses of people 

Note: This has historically been true for those individuals and states (countries) that have been able to fully participate.

To determine a country’s standard of living, Real GDP is divided by the number of people in a country to get Real GDP/person. There is an index of goods and services used to calculate Real GDP, and the population of a nation is determined during the census by counting everyone. 

There are other economic ways to measure standard of living too, but they correlate highly (match closely) with Real GDP/person, so economists continue to use Real GDP and make decisions with it. 

Since Real GDP/person is good and useful, but not perfect, it is important to add in additional measurements to determine the healthiness and desirability of an economy. The number of measurements is really endless. Perhaps we will write more about them in the future.

There are economic trade-offs

In economics, there are trade-offs like there are in health care. For instance, there are “side effects” that are observed in economics. 

Healthy economies are not simple. But remember, it is within the complexities and inconsistencies that opportunities live — so if you want investment opportunities you need an environment you can trust (the market goes up over time), but is also dynamic (but it is an up-and-down climb along the way).

What is Nominal GDP?

Aside from Real GDP economists also use Nominal GDP, which is a measure of the dollar value of goods (such as iPhones) and services (such as Apple Music) sold. 

Nominal GDP does not consider inflation. If you want inflation considered you use Real GDP.

Note: When you see or hear “Real” used in economic terms it means that inflation has been considered in that number or statistic.

So how do economists do their work? 

One way they do their work is by measuring GDP in two consecutive years. The first year they consider “a basket of items” or “a basket of goods” (maybe it’s milk, eggs, coffee, rent, sweaters, etc.) and add them up. This basket helps economists calculate the CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is then called the base year.

The next year they evaluate a basket of goods and see if it costs more or less. If it costs more then there is inflation. (If it costs less then there is deflation.) If it costs 2% more then there is 2% inflation. So when economists measure current prices it is called Nominal GDP, and when they measure versus base year prices it is called Real GDP since it considers inflation. This process can get complicated, but those are the basics.

Economists don’t stop there

They don’t just want to know if we had a good year of growth, and an increase in standard of living. They want to compare it against many countries and across time. After all, if you had 2% growth and Mantanistan (a made up country) had 5% growth, you should evaluate why. You may have felt good about your 2% until you realized you missed a lot of growth that others were experiencing. This is a major concept to understand as an investor:

Putting it into perspective 

It is not simply about if you are up or down, but moreso it’s about whether or not you maximize your gains without exceeding your comfort level.

Similarly, economists look around to see if the economy maximized its performance relative. In the US, it is also important to do so because the US economy is so dynamic, global, and intertwined that looking around helps you see opportunity or avoid economic problems.

Measuring GDP across countries

Measuring GDP across time is done by using Real GDP, as mentioned. Measuring GDP across countries is done by comparing Real GDPs with each other. To do so you would need to determine if that other country is presenting an accurate Real GDP. Remember, there is a basket of items to be measured.

When looking at data from another country are there items that were not counted in the base year, but then counted in the next year? That could present the world with a Real GDP that is higher than it really is. For this reason and others, investors get shy about investing around the world, and if they do they set limits on how much of their money they will invest abroad. That’s wise. 

Investors (and economists) need accurate data

If they feel like the data is questionable, they invest less in those countries – or they’d be wise to use much more caution. Heck, there are investors that only invest in one industry! Maybe they are experts in that industry and only feel comfortable investing there.

With standard of living the increases compound

Even small differences in Real GDP make a big difference in standards of living because the increased standards of living compound. So it turns into gains on top of gains on top of gains. Countries that have even 5% Real GDP growth will double the size of their economy in 14 years. Wow. Now investors start looking abroad again. Ensure the associated risk (Is their data accurate?) versus reward (Their economy will be 2x’d in just 14 years!) is suitable for your financial situation though.

The Penn World Tables

economically.

Historically, there have been shifts in which countries and regions have had the biggest and most powerful economies. After the fall of the Roman Empire, China became the economic leader; during the 1600s Europe transitioned to becoming the economic leader; during the 1800s the UK became the economic leader; and during the 1900s the US became the economic leader. Nowadays, the US, China, and the EU are the 3 biggest economies, but India is set to pass the EU by 2030.

If you go abroad as an investor, do so in a suitable way for your financial situation – and perhaps keep India in view as you look.

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Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 20th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• None scheduled for Friday.

Key  Earnings Reports & Events Today

• No earnings reports scheduled for Friday either.
  
  
• Boeing’s strike continues, and the company has furloughed thousands of workers. The strike began after union members overwhelmingly rejected a proposed contract, leading to a work stoppage that is now becoming prolonged. The strike began on September 13th.

The Fed

• After the recent 50 basis points cut to 4.75-5.00%, the next meeting's outcomes will hinge on new data, potentially setting further rate adjustments.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Tech was up 3.08% yesterday, now up 24.26% this year. Utilities is second-best on the year, up 23.03%.
  
  
• Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 4.77% this year. Second-to-last is Materials, up 8.68%.

5 Day Moving Average: 

• Up Most: 95% of Energy Large Cap stocks are now above their 5 day average. Tech is second now with 88% of its Large Caps above their 5 day average.
  
  

• Down Most: Utilities are down, and only 16% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. Next closest is Real Estate and Consumer Staples at 29%. 

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Up big recently, now about $62,992, which puts it at a staggering 49.89% gain on the year.
  
  
• Ethereum: It’s been a good couple of days for Ethereum again, and is up to about $2,465, which means a 7% gain on the year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Solana is up big again, about 9.82% in the last day. Ox and Bitcoin Cash are close on Solana’s heels though, both up about 9.25%.
  
  
• Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury:  Yields continue to come down, now at 3.629%.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury: Up a tick to 3.715%, but overall it’s had a decline this year too.
  
  
• The yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.

Gold

• Price: Gold is flat in the last day, now about $2,587 per ounce, and up 25.4% on the year.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Up just a bit, now to 6.17%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 7.5% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Global markets are watching closely for economic data from China, which continues to show slower-than-expected growth.
  
  
• Meanwhile, European markets are grappling with high energy prices as winter approaches, which could lead to higher costs and increased inflation risks across the continent.
  
  
• Concerns include Middle East tensions affecting oil prices and global investment flows.

‍

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S.

Continue reading, if you would enjoy…

Some Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

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    We’re the Guide.

• Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
• Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
• Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
• Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
• Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
• Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
• Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
• Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
• Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
• Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
• Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
• 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”

Here's the overview:

Economic Performance

• GDP Growth: The U.S. economy showcased robust growth, with real GDP increasing at an annualized rate of 2.8%, surpassing expectations significantly. This growth was driven by strong consumer spending, which rose by 2.3% for the quarter, alongside contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment.
• Inflation Dynamics: Inflation showed signs of cooling, with the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rising by 2.6% for the quarter, down from 3.4% in the first quarter. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, was up by 2.9%, indicating a more manageable inflation rate but still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target.
• Labor Market: Despite a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, the labor market remained robust, with initial jobless claims aligning with forecasts, suggesting continued employment strength.

Market Movements

• Stock Markets: The market experienced volatility but ended the quarter with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 3.48%, driven by sectors like semiconductors, particularly Nvidia, which significantly influenced the semiconductor index's 22.55% increase. This performance was partly fueled by ongoing interest in AI and technology sectors.
• Bond Markets: Bonds saw a modest recovery, with the U.S. Core Bond Index up by 0.17%. The yield curve remained inverted, reflecting market expectations of future economic conditions and Fed rate movements.
• Commodities and Currency: Oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude oil down by 2.59% for the quarter. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, reflecting confidence in the U.S. economy's performance.

Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Sentiment

• Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's stance shifted slightly, with expectations now leaning towards one rate cut for the year, a decrease from previous projections. This adjustment came in response to the evolving economic data, particularly the cooling inflation rates.
• Market Sentiment: Investors reacted positively to the economic data, especially the better-than-expected GDP growth and easing inflation. However, concerns about geopolitical issues and the upcoming U.S. presidential election introduced elements of uncertainty, emphasizing the need for diversified investment strategies.

Looking Forward

The third quarter and beyond are anticipated to be influenced by how the Federal Reserve navigates the fine line between combating inflation and supporting economic growth. The market's focus will likely remain on inflation trends, employment data, and any further policy adjustments by the Fed.
Conclusion

The second quarter of 2024 was marked by economic resilience, with the U.S. economy showing strength in growth and consumer spending, alongside a cooling inflation rate. Markets responded with cautious optimism, driven by sector-specific gains, particularly in technology.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.