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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 17th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• US Retail Sales are reported today, giving insight into consumer behavior. Expect a slight uptick, reflecting consumer confidence despite inflation pressures.
  
  
• Industrial Production is also reported today. Anticipated to show minimal growth, signaling a steady but not robust manufacturing sector.

Key Events & Earnings Reports Today

• Another quiet day for earnings reports, with none to mention today.
  
  
• Boeing is in the middle of a strike, and the company has frozen hiring and is discussing furloughs as well. The strike is in its fifth day now.

The Fed

• The Fed’s 2 days of meetings begin today. They will be weighing economic factors such as inflation and unemployment, as the members decide on a rate cut – and what size of a rate cut. A lot of momentum has built for a 50 point cut, but 25 points still seems possible too.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Tech leads the pack, up 26.21% this year. Utilities has had the second-best year, up 23.18%.
  
  
• Down Most: No sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 1.83% this year. Second-to-last is Materials, up 7.95% this year.

5 Day Moving Average: This is the percent of Large Cap stocks above their 5 day average

• Up Most: Utilities and Consumer Discretionary are now up a whopping to 97% and 96% of their Large Cap above their 5 day average, respectively. Tech and Materials are tied for second best over the last 5 days with 93% of their Large Caps above their 5 day averages.
  

• Down Most: Energy is down most with 59% of its Large Cap stocks above its 5 day average. And Consumer Staples was second to last, although it had 68% of its Large Cap stocks above their 5 day averages.
  
  
• Overall, it was a great week for these sectors, as we get a new week started.

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Down a bit over the last day, now about $58,298. Bitcoin is still up an enormous 40% this year though.
  
  
• Ethereum: Also down over the last day to about $2,298, making Ethereum about flat on the year so far.
  

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury Yield:  At 3.557%, it has continued its yield decline this year.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: At 3.618%, it also continues its yield decline this year.

Gold

• Price: Gold has had an amazing year, up more than 25%, now at about $2,584.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down just a bit, now to 6.12%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 8% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Global Trade Tensions: Watchful eye on US-China relations which could impact global trade and thus, market stability.
  
  
• European Markets: Mixed sentiment due to varied economic recoveries across the continent.
  
  
• Asia: Strong performance in tech sectors, but concerns over real estate in China persist.‍

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S. 

Some Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

• Economic Reports: These are snapshots of the economy's health. For instance, Retail Sales show consumer spending, crucial for economic growth. Industrial Production indicates manufacturing strength.
• Federal Reserve (The Fed): This is like the economy's central bank in the U.S. They control interest rates, influencing borrowing costs, which can affect everything from your mortgage to stock prices. A rate cut typically means they want to stimulate economic activity.
• Stocks: Think of sectors as different industries within the stock market. Tech stocks might rise if there's innovation or demand for tech, while energy stocks could fall if oil prices drop.
• Bonds: These are like IOUs from governments or companies. The yield (interest rate) you get from bonds like the 2-year or 10-year Treasuries can predict economic expectations. Higher yields might mean more risk or inflation expected.
• Cryptocurrencies: Like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), these are digital currencies. Their prices can soar or plummet due to speculation, adoption rates, or regulatory news.
• Gold: Often seen as a safe investment. When economic stability is in doubt, gold's value tends to rise as investors seek safety.
• Real Estate: Mortgage rates affect housing affordability. Lower rates mean cheaper loans, often boosting home sales.
• Geopolitical Events: Events like trade wars or policy changes can disrupt global markets. Investors look for stability or opportunities in these shifts.

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

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‍US Economic Reports Today's economic calendar is packed with key indicators:

• GDP (Second Estimate for Q2): Expected to hold steady at 2.8%, signaling continued economic growth but with a watchful eye on inflation.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Anticipated at 232k, this could influence views on labor market health and Fed's future rate decisions.
• Pending Home Sales Index: At 10 AM, this report will offer insights into future real estate trends, crucial for understanding consumer confidence and housing market dynamics.

‍Key Earnings Reports Today

• NVIDIA (NVDA): After a stellar year, NVIDIA's recent earnings disappointed, leading to a -1.8% drop, which might affect tech sector sentiment today.
• Salesforce (CRM): Positive earnings have boosted Dow futures, suggesting a positive start for tech stocks.
• Dollar General (DG): Scheduled before market open, could provide insights into consumer spending habits.
• Best Buy (BBY): Also reporting pre-market, its performance will be watched for retail sector health.
• Campbell Soup (CPB): Expected to report, offering a view into consumer staples amidst inflation.

Federal Reserve (The Fed)

• While no meeting today, comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic could sway market expectations on future rate decisions. Markets are pricing in rate cuts, especially if unemployment shows signs of increase.

Stocks

• US Stock Indexes: Pre-market trading suggests gains, with tech earnings like Salesforce providing a lift, though tempered by NVIDIA's dip.
• Individual Stocks: Focus on mega-caps like Apple, Amazon, and Google, which often set market sentiment.

Bonds

• Treasury Yields: Remain steady, reflecting a balance between economic recovery and inflation concerns.

Crypto

• Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain volatile, influenced by regulatory news and broader market sentiment. No specific crypto news today, but always watch for reactions to global financial policies.

Gold

• Gold prices are slightly up, seen as a safe haven during economic uncertainty or inflation fears.

Real Estate

• The Pending Home Sales Index will be crucial. A drop could signal cooling in the market, affecting related stocks and funds.

Geopolitical Aspects

• US-China Relations: Developments from recent talks could impact markets, especially tech stocks due to ongoing trade tensions.
• Global Tensions: Any escalation or de-escalation in global hotspots could affect oil prices, thereby influencing energy stocks and commodities.

Worldwide Market News

• Europe: Watch for Brexit-related updates or EU economic data influencing European stocks or the Euro.
• Asia: After Japan's policy shift, Asian markets might react to further comments or data, affecting carry trade dynamics.
• Oil Markets: With WTI and Brent crude prices moving, geopolitical news or OPEC decisions could lead to volatility.

Learning Perspective for someone new to market analysis:

• Economic Reports like GDP and jobless claims gauge economic health, influencing everything from Fed decisions to stock prices.
• Earnings Reports are company performance reviews. Positive earnings can boost stock prices, while misses can lead to drops.
• The Fed controls interest rates, affecting borrowing costs, consumer spending, and asset prices.
• Stocks, Bonds, and Gold often move in response to economic indicators and Fed actions. Stocks might rise with good economic news but fall with inflation fears. Bonds and gold can be safer during uncertainty.
• Crypto and Real Estate are more speculative but influenced by broader economic trends.
• Geopolitics can create sudden market shifts, especially in commodities like oil or currencies.

Today's market will likely be driven by how these various elements interact. For instance, if GDP growth is higher than expected but jobless claims rise, markets might see mixed signals on economic health versus labor market strength, potentially leading to volatility as investors recalibrate expectations for Fed actions and economic recovery.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

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Understanding Liquid Term

When managing personal finances, especially for future goals and emergencies, understanding the concept of "Liquid Term" becomes crucial. This term, though less commonly discussed outside professional financial circles, provides essential insights into the liquidity of your assets and how quickly you can convert them into cash without significant loss. Here’s a detailed explanation of Liquid Term, simplified for those new to finances, and how an Arena Investor Advisor can guide you in optimizing this aspect of your financial planning.

‍What is Liquid Term?

Liquid Term refers to the measure of how long you can sustain your current lifestyle or cover expenses using only your liquid assets without additional income. 

In simpler terms, it's an estimate of how many months or years you can fund your living expenses using readily available resources if no more money comes in. This measure is crucial during periods of financial adjustment, such as a job change, or unexpected situations like a medical emergency.

Importance of Understanding Liquid Term

1. Emergency Preparedness: Knowing your Liquid Term helps gauge how well-prepared you are for unexpected events. It highlights the importance of having accessible funds that can be quickly mobilized in emergencies.

2. Financial Flexibility: A healthy Liquid Term implies more financial flexibility. It allows you to make choices such as changing careers or moving without the immediate pressure of financial constraints.

3. Investment Decisions: Understanding your Liquid Term can influence your investment strategies. If you have a short Liquid Term, you might prioritize increasing it by investing in more liquid assets to enhance your financial security.

Calculating Liquid Term

To calculate your Liquid Term, you divide your liquid assets by your monthly expenses. Liquid assets include things like cash in checking or savings accounts, stocks, and other marketable securities that can be quickly converted to cash. For example, if you have $30,000 in liquid assets and your monthly expenses are $3,000, your Liquid Term is 10 months.

How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Help

1. Assessment and Planning: An Arena Investor Advisor starts by assessing your current financial situation, including calculating your Liquid Term. They can help you understand what your number means and plan steps to improve it if necessary.

2. Customizing Investment Strategies: Depending on your needs and goals, your advisor might suggest ways to adjust your investment portfolio to improve liquidity without sacrificing long-term growth. This could involve diversifying investments or reallocating assets to include more liquid options.

3. Budgeting and Expense Management: Advisors can work with you to optimize your budget, potentially reducing monthly expenses and extending your Liquid Term. They can offer insights into cost-saving without compromising lifestyle quality too much.

4. Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment: Financial situations evolve, so continuous monitoring is vital. Your Arena Investor Advisor will help update your financial plan based on changes in your life and goals, ensuring that your Liquid Term remains adequate.

5. Educational Support: Understanding financial concepts can be overwhelming. Arena Investor Advisors are dedicated to educating you about key financial indicators like Liquid Term. They ensure you’re equipped with the knowledge to make informed decisions.

6. Utilizing Technology: Tools from industry-leading app and platforms you Arena Investor Advisor's ability to present visual and easy-to-understand representations of your financial data, including Liquid Term assessments. This helps you see and understand your financial health in an easy way. It also helps in making informed, data-driven decisions.

All In All

Liquid Term is a vital aspect of financial health, for both new investors learning to navigate the complexities of personal finance and for established investors too. Understanding and managing this term can significantly impact your financial flexibility and security. Working with an Arena Investor Advisor provides you with expert guidance and tools to optimize your Liquid Term effectively. Together, we can build a simple to understand and use financial plan that not only prepares you for the unexpected but also helps achieve your long-term financial goals.

By approaching your financial planning with a clear understanding of Liquid Term, supported by professional advice and advanced financial tools, you can ensure greater stability and confidence in managing your finances.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.