Morning Market Preview for September 16th, 2024

What is a business cycle?
It’s the ups and downs of the entire economy's Real GDP as it follows its overall trend.

The overall trend is upwards

Note: Oddly enough the term business cycle does not apply to a business. Rather, it refers to the entire economy (keeping us all on our toes I guess). 

As the US economy works its way upward it has its ups and down. The ups exceed the downs, and over time the economy (and the stock market) climb upwards. 

This occurrence is typical of a good, and normal, economy. It represents that the US economy is healthy overall, so it grows and performs well (upward trend).

But the US economy also encounters challenges along the way (the downs markets and slowing or shrinking GDP periods).

Importantly, individuals, companies, organizations, and government responds to the declines in order to “fix” the economy by solving a present challenge.

The US has been very good at fixing its economy as it meets challenges, plus we have a huge collection of smart and hardworking businesses full of good people and resources to fix their business (their slice of the economic pie).

Economists measure business cycles

These macroeconomists measure many variables to paint a picture and understand the past, present, and future economy. An example of a variable that is measured is Unemployment. Another example of a variable that is measured is Real GDP. There are tons of variables measured. But these variables are measured at regular intervals (perhaps once per week, once per month, once per quarter, once per year, etc.) When you measure a variable at consistent intervals it’s called a time series.

When you look at the time series (collection of data for one variable taken at regular intervals), you can see trends. Real GDP, Prices, and Unemployment are three massively important trends for economists. When the Real GDP trend shows increases for two or more quarters (a quarter is a 3-month interval, or a quarter of a year) then the economy is in expansion. If that expansion lasts for a long, long time (years) it is considered a boom. 

But when the Real GDP trend shows decreases for two (or more) quarters then the economy is in contraction. Historically, if the Real GDP is contracting then it was called a recession, but nowadays many economists look at more than just Real GDP before labeling the economy as being in a recession. 

(They will look at income, unemployment/employment, etc for an overall feel before using the word recession.) 

So expansion and contraction are not debatable: either your Real GDP continues to grow every quarter and you’re expanding (your economy), or your Real GDP continues to shrink every quarter and you’re contracting (your economy). Obviously, government is interested in having tools to end contraction, avoid recession, and restore expansion/growth — more on that later. 

The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) can officially declare a recession, but as an improving investor gathering your data do you want to just move with the herd and wait for the NBER to declare a recession or end of a recession? Or do you want to be one step in front of it? And even if you do wait, just understanding that an expansion or a contraction is coming can keep you emotionally calm and rational (buying low and selling high takes emotional control and sound reasoning). 

I saw that coming from a mile away” is a powerful feeling as an investor. It takes time to develop that — and you will still get surprised from time to time too. But since you’re winning more than you’re losing as you improve, you deal with it better.

Note: The NBER is typically full of Nobel Laureates and past members of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. But, you know, good investors still ensure what they are reading and hearing makes sense to them.

Many economic factors correlate

For instance, Real GDP and Unemployment rates historically correlate (move together) very, very well. In other words, when Real GDP is going up then Unemployment is going down. When things move together but go in opposite directions that is called “an inverse relationship” or a “negative correlation.” They go in opposite directions, but at the same time; this can also be called countercyclical. And a direct relationship is when two things move in the same direction at the same time; this can also be called positive correlation, procyclical, or just cyclical. 

An investor could look at it the opposite way too: when Unemployment is going down then Real GDP is going up.

The NBER looks at this closely when deciding if we are in a recession. If Real GDP is declining, but Unemployment is not changing then they may not call it a recession. 

There are indeed times when things that are highly correlated (like Real GDP and Unemployment) do not move “correctly.” This is always odd for economists and investors, and you need to pursue the reason (or at least a theory) why. 

Remember, the economy is very dynamic and complex, so there are many things that are usually true but not always true. Economists are just gathering information and painting pictures in order to understand the economy. Not every painting from economists is photo-realistic. 

There are in-between periods too, such as 2024, when the painting looks more like a Monet. You can tell what it is, but there are not a lot of clean edges. What you don’t want is a Jackson Pollock painting (economically speaking), such as the lead-up to GFC (Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008) that wasn’t understood and turned into a crash. 

As an investor, you want procyclical investments when the economy is good (restaurants, airlines, auto-makers) and countercyclical investments (discount retail and alcohol) when the economy is bad.

So before the NBER declares a recession they look for: a decline in total GDP, a decline in income, a decline in employment, and a decline in trade. So they want to see that the economy is bad, or down in many regards — and we would tend to agree with this. The term recession should be reserved for when many bad things are happening within the economy. Otherwise, people might think every bit of bad news is a recession, which reduces their participation in the economy (less iPhones, restaurants, and Disney+) which then would lead to more problems — because they got spooked.

Note: What works really well is to have a teammate that can understand, stay the course, and make some basic pivots along the way. If you can’t do it yourself, we recommend Arena Investor investment management services.

You can be in a growth recession too

What does that mean? It means you were growing at 3% but are now growing at 2.5%. See how you are growing slower now? The growth (growth rate) contracted. But you are still growing. It is like the kid in middle school who hits a growth spurt and grows 12″ in a year versus the kid who grows 6″ in a year. Don’t worry, they are both healthy. 

Look at the data for yourself, hear what is actually happening, and don’t just listen to panicky news. Growth rate contractions happen. Should we look at why? Yes. Should you panic? No. In fact, you should never panic. 

The moral of the story

Continue to learn so you can decide for yourself what is good and bad. (Hint: there are opportunities in every market.)

What is an economic depression?

So we know what contraction is, and we know a recession is more than a Real GDP contraction, but what is a depression? Simply put, an economic depression is when you are in a recession for a long time (years and years). 

Since The Great Depression economists have been steadfastly dedicated to preventing another depression! Heck, we already covered Keynes and his effort to develop macroeconomics because the world was suffering through The Great Depression. (There are other great contributions from others too in economics.)

Economies have momentum and inertia

The momentum is how much change is happening (a lot of upward or downward change in the Real GDP for instance) and inertia is the economy’s resistance to change. This does not mean that when government takes action it is useless; instead, it means that a train slows down slowly. You won’t get a barge to turn on a dime. You can put rudder inputs in, and a turn will start, but it might not respond like a fifth generation military fighter jet.

You may think you want quick changes, but you don’t. What you want is small inputs that are on-time from the government so you don’t get a runaway train in the first place — so you don’t need to do a 180 degree turn with an aircraft carrier — but instead a little left or a little right to stay on target.

As instructor pilots say, “small corrections sooner.” The US government has been pretty good at this compared to the rest of the world, especially when you consider how big, complex, and dynamic our economy is. But let’s stay vigilant.

Note: Economic inertia that is quite resistant to change is called persistence.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

‍We can use different mindsets for different conditions

There are a number of personality types. One type is the transactional individual. A highly transactional person seeks mostly transactional relationships and interactions. And they seek out “the process” because they like to understand a system or a network and leverage it. Like many things, this is a spectrum. Some people are somewhat transactional and some are purely transactional. A transactional personality leads to a transactional mindset. Typically, a transactional mindset means you are looking for something in return. This for that. 

There are pros and cons to transactional mentalities and relationships. Perhaps you are not very transactional, but you have a transactional relationship with someone. For instance, “When Mike and I get together, we drink a coffee and talk about sports.” It’s a true friendship, but it’s transactional. So just because an individual’s personality, or a particular relationship, is a this-for-that one doesn’t make it good or bad. It is what it is. 

But if you were in a sales position, you would be wise to add transactional skills.

Beware though: If you are not a transactional person naturally, then there is a certain amount of friction that occurs when you act transactionally. Decide if that’s okay for you. 

You’re almost certainly adding skills and participating in the workplace in ways that create some friction for you already. When there’s too much friction though, you want to quit your job or change your field. But having a transactional skill set can be valuable when under the right conditions. Most times people think of personalities as set, and that may be correct. But you can certainly add skills that transactional people naturally have.

So what’s “The Investor Mindset” then?

The Investor Mindset, briefly, is what investor-types use. You may already know the people in your life that think and act like investors naturally. Some of their characteristics are: analytical, delayed gratification and thinking long, re-investing, builders or curators, value-measurers, value-adders. 

These are pretty positive characteristics. Again, like many things, it is a spectrum. If you are so analytical that you cannot make a decision, that is bad. You don’t want “paralysis by analysis,” as they say. 

Another thing to watch out for is delaying gratification too much. Someone who overdoes this may become unhappy. Perhaps it is useful when managing money, but it isn’t great if you overuse it in your life. What if you never eat a cookie? It sounds funny when talking about cookies, but be careful about persistently delaying gratification. Discipline is great, but find appropriate treats for yourself too along your journey. 

So whether the previously described investor characteristics come naturally to you or not, you want to treat it like a skill, and use it when appropriate.

At Arena Investor we use “The Investor Mindset” to help us perform our jobs well serving financial planning and investment management clients, as well as providing financial education.

Simply put, The Investor Mindset treats almost everything like a portfolio and only things that make that portfolio better should go in it. At Arena Investor this can mean: stocks, crypto, ETFs, mutual funds, bonds, real estate and so on.

But The Investor Mindset can be used at large too – well beyond finances. For instance, it can also apply to nutrition, fitness, friendship, your subscription TV “watch later” list, and on and on. Investor-types don’t naturally take-on things that don’t make their portfolio better. At a minimum, they try to decide if it is on-par with what they already like, or better. If it is sub-par then good luck talking them into doing it.

A Lot of People Can Relate to This Already

Believe it or not, a lot of people can relate to this as sports fans. Good luck convincing a Cleveland Browns fan that the Arizona Cardinals vs the Seattle Seahawks fits their “entertainment portfolio.” They may watch because they like football at large, but they aren’t truly invested in that game. It isn’t as good or better than their AFC North matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, or Baltimore Ravens. They believe those matchups do make their entertainment portfolio better though.

The suggestion is this:Add “The Investor Mindset” to your life. You don’t have to re-create yourself and try to be someone you’re not though. Simply start to see the world with Investor-tinted glass a bit more each day. 

It can help you get started as an investor too

Perhaps you’ve wanted to invest for a long time now. But you are afraid to get started. With The Investor Mindset realize that an empty portfolio would be made better with one quality company in it.

Now you’ve started. 

And you’ve used The Investor Mindset – you upgraded your portfolio!

Do that a second time, and continue until you are diversified.

Remember: You only want to put stocks into your portfolio that make it better. So say you want to build a portfolio of 10 stocks. Well at the beginning you are really just laying a foundation. Don’t lay a crappy foundation. 

If you wouldn’t leave the portfolio alone for 5 years and be happy with your picks with minimal intervention (say, less than once per quarter), then do not add that stock. 

But remember, while we say stock we really mean company. You should be happy with the company you pick for 5+ years. You should believe in it, the work it does, the role it plays, and be able to sleep at night. That way, you will get through the ups and downs that The Business Cycle (here) intrinsically experiences. 

Be sure to think long when you build the foundation. You wouldn’t swap out parts of your foundation every day, week, or month would you? Perhaps over time you make an upgrade though because it makes sense.

“The Investor Mindset” is large and encompassing. So is a transactional mindset. But you can use the skills that naturally come with those mindsets to your advantage. And you don’t have to become a different person to do it. Pick something in your life to try out The Investor Mindset on. At the start of the new year health and wealth are at the top of many people’s minds already. Maybe choose one of those. Nutrition is a great way to add it to your life: Does this thing I’m about to eat or drink make my body-portfolio better or worse? 

Note: There’s a key difference with nutrition though in that a splurge for an hour on a Friday night isn’t as long-lasting as a financial splurge or investing splurge – that money is spent indefinitely.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 6, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports:

• US Unemployment Rate for August: Due at 8:30am, 4.3% was the previous rate, and expectations are at 4.2% for August. This report will be the key factor for The Fed’s decision to keep or cut rates, and if they cut by how much.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls: Also due at 8:30am, the previous report showed 114,000 additions, and expectations are that payrolls grew to 164,000 additions.
• Federal Reserve Member Waller is scheduled to speak today at 11am. 

Key Earnings Reports Today:

• Fridays are traditionally light on earnings calls, and today is no different. But Bg Lots reports today, and here’s why that’s important:
• Market Sentiment Indicator: Big Lots, as a major closeout retailer, often reflects broader consumer spending trends, particularly among middle-income households. Its performance can signal how discretionary spending is faring, which is crucial for understanding overall retail health.
• Retail Sector Benchmark: Given the retail sector's volatility, Big Lots' earnings provide insights into how discount retail strategies are holding up against economic pressures like inflation, supply chain issues, and shifts in consumer behavior.

The Fed:

• Next Meeting: Scheduled for September 17th and 18th. Expectations are split between lowering rates and maintaining rates, with a hawkish outlook on inflation.

Stocks:

• Top Performing Sectors: Utilities is at 77% and Consumer Staples are at 66% of companies below their 5 day average price.
• Bottom Performing Sector the Last 5 Days: Real Estate is at 48% and Consumer Discretionary is at 35%  of companies below their 5 day average price.

Crypto:

• BTC: Current price $56,023, up 33.61% this year
• ETH: Current price $2,363, up 2.84% this year

Bonds:

• 2-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.745%.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.734%

Gold:

• Open Price: $2520 per ounce, up 22.12% this year, reflecting safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions.

Real Estate:

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.35%, down 4.8% this year
• Trends: Shift towards more affordable housing markets, with a notable increase in remote work affecting urban vs. suburban preferences.

Geopolitical Aspects:

• Tensions in Eastern Europe: Ongoing conflicts continue to affect energy prices and market stability.
• US-China Relations: Trade talks influence tech and manufacturing sectors.

Worldwide News:

• Europe: ECB's potential rate hike decision looms, impacting Eurozone markets.
• Asia: Strong economic recovery in China boosts global commodity prices.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.